Work Trends: Recent and Far

By Neil Baldwin

As Career Development Practitioners, we know clients think we have a magic crystal ball not just into their lives but into the future of the work world. In both respects we have a professional responsibility to provide both knowledge and skills, tempered with the usual disclaimers about their responsibility in the process.

Part of how we encourage that responsibility is to furnish clients with current information. In the spirit of fostering self-directed career development, we should also provide clients with strategies to locate, interpret and use this type of information on their own. When it comes to trends in the labour market, both current and as predicted for the future, it is especially incumbent on us to be up-to-date because these represent the most dynamic and changing topics of all the different types of knowledge we provide clients.

One of my favourite places to get a national perspective on current happenings is Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. You will find the same graphs you see in the newspaper after the release of this report each month: employment, unemployment (no, it’s not just a reverse image of the employment) and full/part time growth. But you will also find commentary and statistical breakdowns, by province and by principal industrial sectors–things that may not be alluded to in the newspaper, depending on space and newsworthiness. The online version of the Labour Force Survey also includes links to “matrices” of detailed statistics that I sometimes download (nominal cost) and graph on my spreadsheet.

Here in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), we also have quarterly labour market reports relevant to the local economy. These detailed HRDC reports (for an example see the analysis for first quarter 2000 are a goldmine of information on what’s hot and what’s not, all neatly organized by industrial sector. It provides current, topical information to clients in an easily-read format. As a Career Counsellor, I also find it to be a great source for statistics, specific examples, and some attention-getting quotes for my presentations on trends. Last year they called Toronto “Silicon Valley North”, in the most recent edition we’re also now “Hollywood North”. I guess everything does revolve around Toronto (humour intended, although readers in Ottawa and Vancouver may not be laughing). Check your HRDC site to see if there is a similar report for your local area.

If you want to look really far ahead, buy a copy of Workforce 2020: Work and workers in the 21st century from the Hudson Institute. Unlike the first two sources, it is not Canadian and it is not free, but this landmark study is the most intensive long-term analysis of the labour market–and the economy that drives it–that I know of. The report paints a picture of massive opportunity, but also of a future labour market divided into two increasingly distinct groups of haves and have-nots. This volatile transformation will be fueled by three main factors: technological change, globalization, and demographics.

The pace of technological change will continue to increase exponentially, with the main innovations occurring in computing, biotechnology and communications (and combinations thereof!). It will keep on displacing workers in low-skill and unskilled work but the development, marketing and servicing of these sophisticated products, says Workforce 2020, will almost inevitably create more jobs than will be lost. But they will be different sorts of jobs requiring different sorts of skill sets. Remember that computers cannot (at least in the foreseeable future) be creative and they cannot make subjective judgements. The best jobs in the coming “Innovation Age” will be those requiring “brains rather than brawn”. It will be good times for North Americans with in-demand skill sets but if knowledge jobs go unfilled because of lack of skilled labour force they will quickly go elsewhere in this connected global economy.

We are surrounded by emerging economies that will, despite ups and downs, continue to grow at a fast rate and thereby generate continued growth in exports from America and its contemporaries like Canada. Transport and communication costs in the global economy are nose-diving, facilitating the export of manufactured products. Moreover, transport costs for some of the most valuable commodities in the “Innovation Age” (i.e., knowledge, ideas, software, financial services, etc.) are almost zero. But this interconnectedness means that people, especially in low-skill and clerical occupations, will compete with others around the world. As physical location becomes increasingly unimportant, structural barriers to employment disappear.

It is technological change and globalization that will change the shape of the workforce. No longer will we see a broad spectrum of skill sets represented. Instead of everyone, regardless of skill set, having their place we will see a labour market with high-skill professional and technical workers on the one hand, and low-skill/unskilled workers (with corresponding wages and standard of living) on the other.

We’ve all heard about the most significant demographic group, the aging Baby Boomers. By 2020, there will be about as many people aged 65+ as there will be in the 20-35 age bracket. They will be healthier and live longer than any generation before them. They will have an enormous impact the health and social programs that support them. What’s more, with their increased activity (and prosperity) the aging Boomers will represent a powerful segment of the consumer market. Watch out for increasing demand in entertainment, travel, leisure and tourism, fuelling an increase in service (but generally low-skill) job opportunities.

Finally, remember that predicting work trends is like forecasting the weather: The further ahead, and the more specific, you get the more likely you’ll be wrong. But one thing is for sure. The keywords for the next 20 years are volatility and opportunity.

For some additional Canadian online resources on trends and outlook, have a look at the trends section of my career links page .

Neil Baldwin, M.Ed., C.C.C., has been doing career counselling for over a decade and has a private practice, Advanced Career Planning Concepts, in Burlington, Ontario. He has made numerous presentations to the general public (most recently as part of the Chapters Active Minds series), and to professionals at national, provincial, and local conferences. His email is baldwin@planyourcareer.net.