The Job Market – A Balanced Perspective

By Roger Sauvé

Clients need to stay informed about the positives and the negatives of the job market. Even though there is certainly a lot of turbulence out there, it seems that workers and especially parents are doing what needs to be done to pursue the lifestyle they want and/or simply stay afloat. The economy is helping.

A look at the positives

• MORE JOBS – The percentage of Canadians aged 15 and up, who have a job is at the highest level ever. (As you will see later, it is also one of the biggest negatives regarding home and work balance.)
• LESS UNEMPLOYMENT – The long-term unemployment rate (persons unemployed three months or longer) slipped to a record-low 2.2% in 2004. The overall unemployment rate now stands near 7% or just a bit above the low set in 2000.
• FEWER DISCOURAGED – Last year, persons who wanted to work but had given up looking for work because they were “discouraged” fell to only 8% of all the non-lookers. This compares to three times the percentage that felt that way in 1997.
• STAYING PUT LONGER – Last year the typical female employee had been with the same employer for 91 months, up sharply from a decade earlier. Really great. The typical male had been with the same employer for about 106 months, which is comparable to a decade earlier. Not terrific but not too bad.
• MAJORITY LEAVE VOLUNTARILY – The number of workers who leave their jobs voluntarily continues to outnumber those who are fired … this has been the case during each of the last five years.
• FULL-TIME IS TOPS – Almost three-quarters of the jobs held by women are full-time, up a few percentage points over the last decade. Almost 9 out of 10 of jobs held by men are full-time, virtually unchanged over the last decade. Among those who do work part-time, the biggest reason for doing so is that they are going to school and the second biggest reason is due to perceived weak business conditions. This is the reverse of the situation in 1998.
• PERMANENT STILL THE RULE – Here is one that probably doesn’t deserve to be a positive but it is because the reality is far better than what most people believe. The percentage of both men and women holding down permanent jobs remains in the high 80s, just a few percentage points off the situation a decade earlier. This is not as bad as many news stories suggest.

And a look at the negatives

• THE BIG NICKLE – Real average hourly earnings in 2004 were up by a measly nickel (a Canadian nickel at that) from 1991. This is the total increase after deducting the advance in consumer prices from the actual increase in earnings. International factors and continued productivity efforts are most likely behind this trend.
• FEWER HOURS – Some people may want to offset the weak earnings growth by working more hours. This is not happening, as the average number of hours worked per week has declined so far this decade.
• FREE OVERTIME – The majority of employees who work overtime do so on an unpaid basis. Some 62% of the overtime done by women is unpaid while 44% of overtime done by men is unpaid. This is especially so among senior managers, who on average put in an extra 12 hours a week.
• A FAMILY-SIZE NEGATIVE – The percentage of dual-income couples has now reached a record 84% among those couples with children. The percentage of female lone-parent families with at least one earner has also set a new record high. The percentage of women with a second paid job is also at a new high. Finding the proper balance between home and work is becoming more and more difficult for those with children. Most of these couples are experiencing more financial stress than ever before. Is it any wonder why parents are looking for good and affordable daycare or are having fewer kids? In sharp contrast, the dual-income ratio among couples without children has remained relatively flat over the last quarter century.

Overall, the job market is doing fairly well at this time. Jobs are available and people are willing to fill them. This has both positive and negative consequences. As is frequently the case, we cannot be really sure which trends are positive and which are negative or are both good and bad at the same time. It often depends on your perspective … whether you are an employer, an employee, a parent or even a child.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting located in British Columbia. He publishes an annual CANADA JOB TRENDS UPDATE report in April of each year. Roger writes and presents on social and labour market trends, demographics and family finances. He has been quoted or interviewed by national and international media. He has a Masters Degree in Economics. He is a former President of the Toronto Association for Business and Economics.